Stigler, S. M. (1986). The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty Before 1900. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Stigler, S. M. (1999). Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Stigler, S. M. (2016). The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Toulmin, S. (1961). Foresight and Understanding: An Enquiry into the Aims of Science. University of Indiana Press, Bloomington, IN. Virgil. (29 bc). Georgics. Verse 490, Book 2.
Глава 1. Лестница причинности
Глава 1. Лестница причинности
A technical account of the distinctions between the three levels of the Ladder of Causation can be found in Chapter 1 of Pearl (2000).
Our comparisons between the Ladder of Causation and human cognitive development were inspired by Harari (2015) and by the recent findings by Kind et al. (2014). Kind’s article contains details about the Lion Man and the site where it was found. Related research on the development of causal understanding in babies can be found in Weisberg and Gopnik (2013).
The Turing test was first proposed as an imitation game in 1950 (Turing, 1950). Searle’s “Chinese Room” argument appeared in Searle (1980) and has been widely discussed in the years since. See Russell and Norvig (2003); Preston and Bishop (2002); Pinker (1997).
The use of model modification to represent intervention has its conceptual roots with the economist Trygve Haavelmo (1943); see Pearl (2015) for a detailed account. Spirtes, Glymour, and Scheines (1993) gave it a graphical representation in terms of arrow deletion. Balke and Pearl (1994a, 1994b) extended it to simulate counterfactual reasoning, as demonstrated in the firing squad example.
A comprehensive summary of probabilistic causality is given in Hitchcock (2016). Key ideas can be found in Reichenbach (1956); Suppes (1970); Cartwright (1983); Spohn (2012). My analyses of probabilistic causality and probability raising are presented in Pearl (2000; 2009, Section 7.5; 2011).
Balke, A., and Pearl, J. (1994a). Counterfactual probabilities: Computational methods, bounds, and applications. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 10 (R. L. de Mantaras and D. Poole, eds.). Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 46–54.
Balke, A., and Pearl, J. (1994b). Probabilistic evaluation of counterfactual queries. In Proceedings of the Twelfth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, vol. 1. MIT Press, Menlo Park, CA, 230–237.