Tian, J., and Pearl, J. (2000). Probabilities of causation: Bounds and identification. Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence 28: 287–313.

Trenberth, K. (2012). Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change. Climatic Change 115: 283–290.

VanderWeele, T. (2015). Explanation in Causal Inference: Methods for Mediation and Interaction. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.

Глава 9. Опосредование: в поисках механизма действия

Глава 9. Опосредование: в поисках механизма действия

Annotated Bibliography

There are several books dedicated to the topic of mediation. The most up-to-date reference is VanderWeele (2015); MacKinnon (2008) also contains many examples. The dramatic transition from the statistical approach of Baron and Kenny (1986) to the counterfactual-based approach of causal mediation is described in Pearl (2014) and Kline (2015). McDonald’s quote (to discuss mediation, “start from scratch”) is taken from McDonald (2001).

Natural direct and indirect effects were conceptualized in Robins and Greenland (1992) and deemed problematic. They were later formalized and legitimized in Pearl (2001), leading to the Mediation Formula.

In addition to the comprehensive text of VanderWeele (2015), new results and applications of mediation analysis can be found in De Stavola et al. (2015); Imai, Keele, and Yamamoto (2010); and Muthén and Asparouhov (2015). Shpitser (2013) provides a general criterion for estimating arbitrary path-specific effects in graphs.

The Mediation Fallacy and the fallacy of “conditioning” on a mediator are demonstrated in Pearl (1998) and Cole and Hernán (2002). Fisher’s falling for this fallacy is told in Rubin (2005), whereas Rubin’s dismissal of mediation analysis as “deceptive” is expressed in Rubin (2004).

The startling story of how the cure for scurvy was “lost” is told in Lewis (1972) and Ceglowski (2010). Barbara Burks’s story is told in King, Montañez Ramírez, and Wertheimer (1996); the quotes from Terman and Burks’s mother are drawn from the letters (L. Terman to R. Tolman, 1943).

The source paper for the Berkeley admissions paradox is Bickel, Hammel, and O’Connell (1975), and the ensuing correspondence between him and Kruskal is found in Fairley and Mosteller (1977).

VanderWeele (2014) is the source for the “smoking gene” example, and Bierut and Cesarini (2015) tells the story of how the gene was discovered.

The surprising history of tourniquets, before and during the Gulf War, is told in Welling et al. (2012) and Kragh et al. (2013). The latter article is written in a personal and entertaining style that is quite unusual for a scholarly publication. Kragh et al. (2015) describes the research that unfortunately failed to prove that tourniquets improve the chances for survival.